Belarus: Chronology of events after the partial mobilization in Russia
On September 21, 2022, Putin made a statement that partial mobilization of population is announced in Russia. Formally, Belarus has not joined the war against Ukraine, though providing the territory to Russian aggressors for the attack. However, till now, the Belarusian troops have not crossed the border. At the same time, the chronology of the events shows that preparation and training of the Belarusian military has intensified.
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September 21: Putin declared the partial mobilization in Russia
September 23: Aliaksandr Lukashenka made a statement that there would be no mobilization in Belarus: “That mobilization is in Russia. They are trying to throw that bridge that mobilization will be here as well... There will be no mobilization. I’s a lie”. He emphasized that “Belarus will respond to possible threats and attempts at terrorist attacks”. For that, military exercises are being held in the country, including these with the participation of the so-called people’s militia.
September 26: The Belarusian foreign minister Vladimir Makey in his interview to RIA News confirmed the possibility of deployment of nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus and the corresponding plans of the Belarusian and Russian regimes.
September 29: In Belarus, repressions against people unwilling to serve in the army with a high probability to be sent to the Russian was against Ukraine continue. A 24-year-old man was tried in Minsk for the attempt to avoid military service by going to Poland. He was detained when he came home for a visit and was sentenced to two months of arrest. The court found him guilty under Part 1 Art. 435 of the Criminal Code (evasion from activities on draft to the military service).
October 4: Belarus cannot ignore the aggressive policy of NATO and neighboring countries, Belarusian defense minister, Viktor Khrenin, told the media after the meeting held with security forces to discuss the country’s military security. “We will respond to all threats that may arise, quickly, accurately and adequately. For this, we have both the forces and the means." The defense minister made a statement that under the guise of an imaginary "threat from the East", NATO countries and Belarus’ neighbors are not just militarizing. They are preparing for war. Proceeding from this, we are mapping out concrete and adequate response measures," he added.
October 5: Aliaksandr Lukashenka admitted the participation of Belarus in the “special military operation” of Russia, and added that “But we don’t kill anyone.” Belarus’ participation was first of all limited to preventing the conflict from spreading onto Belarusian territory and, secondly, to “have Russia’s back.
October 6: A regular conscription campaign is held in Belarus. Thousands of young men are directed to military enlistment and conscription offices to determine their suitability for military service. The first conscripts are planned to replenish the armed forces by the end of October.
October 7: An 18-year-old, accused of evasion from activities on draft to the military service, is going to be tried in Minsk. The young man is accused under Part 1 Art. 435 of the Criminal Code (evasion from activities on draft to the military service), he is facing up to two years of imprisonment.
October 10: Lukashenka and Putin agreed on deployment of joint Regional Grouping of Forces. Lukashenka announced that at the meeting on military security.
October 10: Partizansky District Court examined a criminal case against a 19-year-old man, accused of evasion from activities on draft to the military service. The materials of the case state that the defendant, being a conscript and being warned of the criminal liability for evasion from activities on draft to the military service, from February, 1 till March, 31 of the current year “maliciously evaded the activities on draft to the military service till the end of the conscription, in particular, he thrice failed to appear at the location of the activities on draft to the military service without valid reasons”. In the result the young man was found guilty of evasion from activities on draft to the military service and sentenced to 240 hours of community service.
October 11: The Russians continue to deploy Iranian kamikaze drones Shahed-136 to Belarus. As of October 10, 2022, 32 drones were brought to the country, other 8 drones are expected to be delivered in the following days, informed RBC-Ukraine making reference to the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry. Besides that, the Ukrainian intelligence states that Belarus is providing the Russian army with material and technicals means and ammunition from its storages.
October 11: “Belarus participates in the ‘special operation’ in Ukraine, fulfilling several functions,” - the First Deputy of the State Secretary of the Security Council of Belarus, Pavel Muravejka, told the Belarusian television. “We are an ally of the Russian Federation. We are standing shoulder to shoulder with our Russian brothers, and we will not allow any blows in their back, we will not allow any attack on them.
October 13: On October, 12, Belarusian parliament adopted on first reading the draft law specifying, among others, the grounds for granting the right to deferment of military service. The main thing, the draft law suggests a decrease in the number of people receiving the right to deferment of military service. It suggests that only those students studying abroad will be granted the right to deferment who have been sent there by the state.
October 15: First echelons with Russian servicemen, making part of the Regional Grouping of Forces, arrived to Belarus, the Ministry of Defense of Belarus reported on its Telegram channel.
October 16: Russia started transferring military aircrafts and helicopters to Belarus, which will constitute the aviation part of the Regional Grouping of Forces, the Ministry of Defense of Belarus reported on its Telegram channel. Around 9 thousand Russian servicemen are planning to arrive to Belarus in the framework of the deployment of the joint grouping of forces.
October 18: Belarusian servicemen from different arms received a communication forbidding their travel abroad with any purpose. At the same time, in the whole country, the campaign to withdraw passports from the law enforcers started. The only country, that Belarusian servicemen are allowed to travel, is Russia. That order is given verbally to the military.
October 20: According to the Telegram channel of Belarusian Intelligence, in the first half of October, the mobilization department of the Belarusian Ministry of Defense issued an order under the seal “classified” on the preparation of "urgent training" for both reserve servicemen and reserve troops. Packages were received by numerous military registration and enlistment offices over the country. Recruits are called to the military registration and enlistment offices by means of a call or draft notices to “clarify information”. Upon arrival, the necessary identification data is specified, the conscript undergoes a medical examination (if necessary) and a permanent mobilization order is glued into the military ID card, a briefing is given and responsibility for evasion is reported. Those liable for military service who have prescriptions, in the event of an announcement of mobilization or military trainings, are obliged to immediately arrive at the collection points. Particularly the conscripts with ’deficient’ specialties for the military infrastructure will be drafted. The selection of candidates will be carried out taking into account special criteria, primarily loyalty to the current Belarussian government.
October 20: According to the Belarussian Ministry of Defense, purposeful work is being carried out to re-equip the troops with new modern types of weapons, military and special equipment. The equipment is being upgraded in three directions: the modernization of existing equipment at industrial enterprises in Russia and Belarus, the purchase of modern samples produced in Belarus, delivery of such samples from Russian enterprises within the framework of military-technical cooperation. Thus, the Armed Forces have already received new armored vehicles BTR-82A, modernized tanks T-72B3 and armored vehicles BTR-70MB, lightly armored combat vehicles "Dragon" and "Caiman", other types of weapons and military equipment. In view of the evolving military and political situation, considerable attention is being paid to equipping troops with unmanned aerial systems of various levels and purposes.
October 24: In Belarus, Iranian instructors train the Russian military and supervise the launch of drones. This was written by the Centre for National Resistance created by the Special Operation Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. In Belarus the Iranian instructors were noticed, they could coordinate the launches of Shahed-136 kamikaze drones at infrastructure facilities in Ukraine. It stated that a group of Iranian instructors, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Officers, was observed in the village of Mikulichi in Gomel region. The above-mentioned group was under heavy guard of both Rosgvardia (Russian National Guard) and FSB officers. Namely, these instructors coordinated the launch of drones on the infrastructure objects of the Kyiv region, the Northern and Western regions of Ukraine. In addition, it is reported that the Russians have completely taken control of the air bases in Baranovichi and Lida and continue to use them to attack the territory of Ukraine.
October 29: Belarusians have been boycotting Lukashist military training and mobilization. The Volkovysk District Court gave a fine of 2,240 in Belarusian rubles to a 30-year-old Belarusian for ’willful evasion of calling up for military training’.
October 31: Lukashenka signed another decree No. 387 approving a draft agreement with the Russian Federation on the establishment and operation of joint military training and combat centers. Further details about the project have not been disclosed.
November 2: Preparations are underway for the joint strategic military exercises of Belarus and Russia ’Union Shield-2023’, which will become the main event of the joint training of both military authorities and troops next year. It should be reminded that the last joint Belarusian-Russian exercises ’Allied Decisiveness - 2022’ in February of this year had ended with Russia invading Ukraine, in particular from the territory of Belarus.
November 6: Belarus claimed that Kyiv was preparing for war. Initially, a message appeared on the website of the Belarusian border guards that the Ukrainian security forces had committed a provocation using armored vehicles on the border with Belarus. A little later, the Belarusian border service allegedly intercepted a Ukrainian drone a kilometer from the border.
November 28: the Telegram channel “Live. Community of railway workers of Belarus” informed that Russia had deployed to Belarus a huge echelon with military equipment by the railway: not less that 15 units of the Tor-M2 air defense systems and 10 units of engineering equipment. According to the channel, the military echelon N. 961 departed from the railstaition of Yeisk (Krasnodar Territory, Russian Federation) on November 25, 2022. It carried not less than 15 units of the Tor-M2 air defense systems and 10 units of engineering equipment.
Nash Dom: Situation with the Belarusian army: Chronology of events after the mobilization in Russia was announced. Excerpts. November 21, 2022. https://news.house/54772